{"id":23193,"date":"2020-01-14T06:46:11","date_gmt":"2020-01-14T05:46:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seaoo.com\/blog\/?p=23193"},"modified":"2020-01-10T09:49:01","modified_gmt":"2020-01-10T08:49:01","slug":"iran-vs-usa-czy-i-jak-konflikt-wplynie-na-handel","status":"publish","type":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.seaoo.com\/blog\/iran-vs-usa-czy-i-jak-konflikt-wplynie-na-handel\/","title":{"rendered":"Iran vs USA. Czy i jak konflikt wp\u0142ynie na handel?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Po bezpo\u015brednim i \u015bmiertelnym ataku na jednego z najwa\u017cniejszych genera\u0142\u00f3w ira\u0144skiego re\u017cimu, Kasema Sulejmaniego, konflikt na linii Iran \u2013 USA nosi znamiona otwartej wojny. Taka eskalacja mo\u017ce mie\u0107 wp\u0142yw nie tylko na \u015bwiatowy pok\u00f3j, ale te\u017c handel. Jak bardzo mo\u017ce zmieni\u0107 si\u0119 transport i handel na \u015bwiecie przez dzia\u0142ania tych dw\u00f3ch kraj\u00f3w?<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Musimy na pocz\u0105tku zaznaczy\u0107, \u017ce Iran to nie jest pierwsza pot\u0119ga \u015bwiatowa, z kt\u00f3r\u0105 USA tocz\u0105 batalie. Stany Zjednoczone praktycznie od pocz\u0105tku kadencji Donalda Trumpa s\u0105 w stanie handlowej wojny z Chinami<\/a>, a i stosunki z Rosj\u0105 nie s\u0105 do ko\u0144ca stabilne. Jednak te dwa konflikty nie maj\u0105 pod\u0142o\u017ca militarnego, tak jak ten z jedn\u0105 najwi\u0119kszych gospodarek Bliskiego Wschodu.<\/p>\n

Nie ma jednak wojny, kt\u00f3ra nie wp\u0142ywa na \u015bwiatowy transport i handel. Sprawd\u017amy jakie skutki odczuje globalna gospodarka i czy b\u0119d\u0105 mia\u0142y wp\u0142yw r\u00f3wnie\u017c bezpo\u015brednio na nas.<\/p>\n

Iran \u2013 na czym stoi jego gospodarka?<\/h2>\n

Analizuj\u0105c to, jak konflikt USA vs. Iran wp\u0142ynie na \u015bwiatow\u0105 gospodark\u0119, powinni\u015bmy najpierw przeanalizowa\u0107 co ma \u015bwiatu do zaoferowania Iran. Bliskowschodni kraj to przede wszystkim eksporter ropy naftowej i gazu ziemnego. W\u0142a\u015bnie na wydobywaniu i sprzeda\u017cy tych surowc\u00f3w oparta jest tamtejsza gospodarka. To jednak nie wszystko! Ira\u0144czycy s\u0105 te\u017c \u015bwiatowym liderem w eksporcie orzech\u00f3w pistacjowych i daktyli. Sprzeda\u017c opieraj\u0105 tak\u017ce na tkaninach i wyrobach chemicznych.<\/p>\n

Import Iranu<\/a> to g\u0142\u00f3wnie r\u00f3\u017cnego rodzaju maszyny oraz nowoczesne technologie, kt\u00f3rych tamtejsza produkcja jest na niskim poziomie.<\/p>\n

Konflikt uderzy w ceny ropy?<\/h2>\n

Jak widzimy po powy\u017cszych danych, najwa\u017cniejszym polem dzia\u0142ania Iranu jest ropa i gaz. Ju\u017c po ataku na Sulejmaniego ceny bary\u0142ki na \u015bwiecie podnios\u0142y si\u0119 wi\u0119c o kilka punkt\u00f3w procentowych. To nasuwa nam prosty wniosek \u2013 skoro ceny paliw b\u0119d\u0105 ros\u0142y, to czeka nas og\u00f3lny cen wzrost. By\u0107 mo\u017ce jednak USA b\u0119d\u0105 chcia\u0142y zminimalizowa\u0107 te straty i wraz ze swoimi partnerami zwi\u0119ksz\u0105 wydobycie, by wynagrodzi\u0107 rynkowi wojn\u0119.<\/p>\n

Zanim to jednak si\u0119 stanie, czeka nas z pewno\u015bci\u0105 wzrost. To natomiast najpewniej sprawi, \u017ce dro\u017csze b\u0119d\u0105 te\u017c us\u0142ugi transportowe. Taki stan rzeczy b\u0119dziemy mie\u0107 do czasu, a\u017c konflikt przybierze konkretn\u0105 lini\u0119 \u2013 albo si\u0119 uspokoi, albo (jak pisali\u015bmy wy\u017cej) dojdzie do otwartej wojny i USA zwi\u0119ksz\u0105 wydobycie paliw.<\/p>\n

Zwi\u0119kszenie embarga na pewno sprawi te\u017c, \u017ce przedsi\u0119biorcy handluj\u0105cymi bogactwami z Iranu, lub ich partnerzy biznesowi strac\u0105 rynek zbytu. Eksperci radz\u0105, \u017ce ju\u017c teraz warto interesowa\u0107 si\u0119 alternatyw\u0105.<\/p>\n

A jak z Polsk\u0105?<\/h2>\n

Czy polska gospodarka powinna obawia\u0107 si\u0119 konfliktu na linii Iran \u2013 USA? Sp\u00f3jrzmy na dane. Warto\u015b\u0107 eksportu to 281,4 mln z\u0142otych. To nie stanowi nawet jednego procenta w skali kraju. Do Iranu wysy\u0142amy g\u0142\u00f3wnie maszyny i urz\u0105dzenia elektryczne, artyku\u0142y spo\u017cywcze oraz wyroby kamieniarskie i ze stali.<\/p>\n

Co importujemy? Oczywi\u015bcie g\u0142\u00f3wnie produkty mineralne (g\u0142\u00f3wnie gaz i ropa), ale r\u00f3wnie\u017c produkty pochodzenia ro\u015blinnego i tworzywa sztuczne. Skala importu te\u017c jest minimalna \u2013 wynosi 0,1 procent ca\u0142o\u015bci, a to stanowi z kolei \u00a0641,1 mln z\u0142otych.<\/p>\n

Jak widzimy, g\u0142\u00f3wne konsekwencje gospodarcze dla Polski to zwy\u017cka \u015bwiatowych cen ropy. Nie ma natomiast ryzyka, \u017ce Polscy importerzy i eksporterzy strac\u0105 wa\u017cnego partnera, bo Iran nie jest w czo\u0142\u00f3wce je\u017celi chodzi o handel z Polsk\u0105. Nie powinni\u015bmy te\u017c obawia\u0107 si\u0119, \u017ce ewentualny konflikt zbrojny USA \u2013 Iran wywo\u0142a krach gospodarczy na \u015bwiecie, cho\u0107 na pewno nie przyniesie pozytywnych efekt\u00f3w.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Po bezpo\u015brednim i \u015bmiertelnym ataku na jednego z najwa\u017cniejszych genera\u0142\u00f3w ira\u0144skiego re\u017cimu, Kasema Sulejmaniego, konflikt na linii Iran \u2013 USA nosi znamiona otwartej wojny. Taka eskalacja mo\u017ce mie\u0107 wp\u0142yw nie tylko na \u015bwiatowy pok\u00f3j, ale te\u017c handel. Jak bardzo mo\u017ce zmieni\u0107 si\u0119 transport i handel na \u015bwiecie przez dzia\u0142ania tych dw\u00f3ch kraj\u00f3w?<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":23199,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[150],"tags":[6319,82,333,33,43,6247],"class_list":["post-23193","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ze-swiata","tag-gospodarka","tag-handel","tag-iran","tag-transport-2","tag-usa","tag-wojna"],"_wp_page_template":null,"_publicize_pending":null,"publicize_twitter_user":null,"_wpas_done_4647298":null,"_publicize_done_external":null,"_wpas_skip_4647132":null,"_wpas_skip_4647298":null,"_wp_attached_file":null,"_wp_attachment_metadata":null,"publicize_facebook_url":null,"publicize_twitter_url":null,"_wpas_mess":null,"_wpas_done_4647132":null,"_menu_item_type":null,"_menu_item_menu_item_parent":null,"_menu_item_object_id":null,"_menu_item_object":null,"_menu_item_target":null,"_menu_item_classes":null,"_menu_item_xfn":null,"_menu_item_url":null,"_ht_post_sidebar":null,"_ht_post_view_single":null,"_ht_pf_gallery_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_gallery_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_image_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_image_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_video_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_video_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_audio_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_audio_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_quote_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_quote_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_link_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_link_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_status_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_status_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_chat_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_chat_post_excerpt":null,"_thumbnail_id":"23199","_ht_page_sidebar":null,"_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Na linii Iran \u2013 USA jest bardzo gor\u0105co i \u015bwiatowa gospodarka czeka na kolejne kroki. 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