{"id":24550,"date":"2020-05-27T06:37:02","date_gmt":"2020-05-27T04:37:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.seaoo.com\/blog\/?p=24550"},"modified":"2020-05-26T13:27:36","modified_gmt":"2020-05-26T11:27:36","slug":"tarcza-antykryzysowa-i-nie-tylko-jak-wplynie-na-transport","status":"publish","type":null,"link":"https:\/\/www.seaoo.com\/blog\/tarcza-antykryzysowa-i-nie-tylko-jak-wplynie-na-transport\/","title":{"rendered":"Tarcza antykryzysowa i nie tylko – jak wp\u0142ynie na transport?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Konsekwencje epidemii koronawirusa na ka\u017cd\u0105 ga\u0142\u0105\u017a gospodarki s\u0105 na razie niepoliczalne. Ci\u0119\u017cko zak\u0142ada\u0107 co przyniesie przysz\u0142o\u015b\u0107, a kreowanie optymistycznych czy pesymistycznych wariant\u00f3w jest jak wr\u00f3\u017cenie z fus\u00f3w. Spr\u00f3bujmy jednak okre\u015bli\u0107, jak na polski transport wp\u0142ynie tarcza antykryzysowa i zawirowania na \u015bwiatowych rynkach.<\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

Tarcza antykryzysowa to pakiet rz\u0105dowych ustaw, skierowanych do przedsi\u0119biorc\u00f3w. System legislacyjny ma w teorii pom\u00f3c firmom, kt\u00f3rym ci\u0119\u017cko utrzyma\u0107 si\u0119 na rynku z powodu epidemii koronawirusa. W praktyce nie wygl\u0105da to tak r\u00f3\u017cowo.<\/p>\n

Tarcza antykryzysowa \u2013 bezpo\u015brednio raczej nie pomo\u017ce<\/h2>\n

Dzia\u0142anie tarczy antykryzysowej opiera si\u0119 na nast\u0119puj\u0105cych filarach. Pierwszy to \u015bwiadczenie postojowe dla pracodawc\u00f3w. Drugi zwalnia pracodawc\u00f3w i samozatrudnionych z obowi\u0105zku p\u0142acenia sk\u0142adek ZUS (z zachowaniem prawa do ubezpiecze\u0144). Ostatni to r\u00f3\u017cnego rodzaju odroczenia (m.in. kwestie rat leasingowych, kredyt\u00f3w, podatk\u00f3w) i po\u017cyczki.<\/p>\n

Niestety, ka\u017cdy z punkt\u00f3w ma jakie\u015b \u201eale\u201d. W przypadku ZUS czy postojowego spotkamy si\u0119 z ograniczeniami dotycz\u0105cymi liczby zatrudnianych pracownik\u00f3w lub uwaga \u2013 przychodu (kt\u00f3ry nie mo\u017ce przekracza\u0107 15\u00a0600 z\u0142otych), co wyklucza wiele firm z bran\u017cy transportu. Odroczenia podatk\u00f3w czy leasingu to konieczno\u015b\u0107 ich p\u00f3\u017aniejszego op\u0142acenia w ca\u0142o\u015bci i \u2013 w wielu przypadkach \u2013 dalszego sp\u0142acania odsetek.<\/p>\n

Niekt\u00f3rzy eksperci upatruj\u0105 jednak szanse nie w samej dotacji bezpo\u015bredniej, a mo\u017cliwo\u015bci odbicia si\u0119 klient\u00f3w firm transportowych. Je\u017celi oni zaczn\u0105 wspomaga\u0107 si\u0119 dotacjami, to mo\u017cliwe, \u017ce zn\u00f3w b\u0119d\u0105 inwestowa\u0107 w swoje \u015brodki i mocniej ruszy koniunktura transportowa. Nie mo\u017cemy jednak z ca\u0142\u0105 pewno\u015bci\u0105 stwierdzi\u0107, \u017ce przyj\u0119te rozwi\u0105zania wystarcz\u0105 na d\u0142u\u017csz\u0105 met\u0119. Je\u017celi nadal b\u0119d\u0105 zamkni\u0119te kolejne sektory us\u0142ug, to te b\u0119d\u0105 upada\u0107 mimo dofinansowania.<\/p>\n

Krachu jeszcze nie ma<\/h2>\n

Co ciekawe, transport w polskiej rzeczywisto\u015bci jeszcze do\u015b\u0107 stabilnie (z tendencj\u0105 spadkow\u0105) si\u0119 trzyma. Wp\u0142ywaj\u0105 na to zapotrzebowania na \u015brodki medyczne i ochronne (te mo\u017cesz zamawia\u0107 m.in. z Chin<\/a>). Fundacje, stowarzyszenia i firmy prywatne zamawiaj\u0105 ogromne ilo\u015bci przy\u0142bic, masek, r\u0119kawic i kombinezon\u00f3w. By\u0107 mo\u017ce niekt\u00f3rzy powinni ju\u017c przemy\u015ble\u0107 inwestycj\u0119 w t\u0119 ga\u0142\u0105\u017a.<\/p>\n

Spadki w bran\u017cy w okolicach 10 procent to nie du\u017co w por\u00f3wnaniu do innych sektor\u00f3w (turystyka, gastronomia, bran\u017ca rozrywkowa). \u017byciodajne dla bran\u017cy s\u0105 r\u00f3wnie\u017c dalsze inwestycje w infrastruktur\u0119. Nie zatrzymuj\u0105 si\u0119 lotniska, budowy dr\u00f3g czy port\u00f3w. Na razie zarz\u0105dcy tych kluczowych miejsc nie zdecydowali si\u0119 na wstrzymanie rob\u00f3t. Co wa\u017cne, jak podkre\u015bla minister transportu \u2013 zatrzymanie inwestycji nawet na tydzie\u0144 wi\u0105\u017ce si\u0119 z ogromnymi op\u00f3\u017anieniami.<\/p>\n

Oczywi\u015bcie, polski rz\u0105d najwi\u0119cej uwagi po\u015bwi\u0119ci\u0142 transportowi drogowemu, kt\u00f3ry ma najwi\u0119kszy wk\u0142ad w polsk\u0105 ga\u0142\u0105\u017a przewozow\u0105<\/p>\n

Samochodowy transport jest najwa\u017cniejszy. \u0179le odbieramy to, co dzieje si\u0119 teraz na \u015bwiatowym rynku transportowym. Zmniejsza si\u0119 wolumen przewo\u017conych towar\u00f3w i zainteresowanie transportem rzeczy. To wp\u0142yw epidemii, kt\u00f3ry trzeba przeczeka\u0107 \u2013 m\u00f3wi Andrzej Adamczyk.<\/p>\n

Szanse i zagro\u017cenia<\/h2>\n

Co jeszcze zagra\u017ca bran\u017cy? Zdecydowanym problemem jest ograniczony ruch graniczny i cz\u0119\u015bciowo zablokowany korytarz powietrzny. Utrudnienia przek\u0142adaj\u0105 si\u0119 na dost\u0119pno\u015b\u0107 us\u0142ug, co niekiedy podnosi ich ceny. Du\u017co d\u0142u\u017cszy jest te\u017c czas dostaw. Odbija si\u0119 to na drobnicy. Sprowadzanie towar\u00f3w z Chin trwa niekiedy nawet 3 miesi\u0105ce. Drobnica traci zreszt\u0105 r\u00f3wnie\u017c na niskim popycie na towary, bo konsumenci postanowili swoje pieni\u0105dze trzyma\u0107 na kontach oszcz\u0119dno\u015bciowych, na czarn\u0105 godzin\u0119. Zmniejsza si\u0119 zreszt\u0105 przez to r\u00f3wnie\u017c wolumen handlu na \u015bwiecie.<\/p>\n

Chiny, jako jeden z naszych najwi\u0119kszych partner\u00f3w handlowych nie wzbudza natomiast takiego zaufania spo\u0142ecznego, jak jeszcze p\u00f3\u0142 roku temu. To ogranicza mo\u017cliwo\u015b\u0107 swobodnego korzystania z wyrob\u00f3w tamtejszej gospodarki.<\/p>\n

A czy przed transportem s\u0105 jakie\u015b szanse? Zdecydowanie tak. Bardzo niska jest cena ropy, co obni\u017cy koszt prowadzenia dzia\u0142alno\u015bci w handlu. Ni\u017csze koszty mog\u0105 na d\u0142u\u017csz\u0105 met\u0119 obni\u017cy\u0107 ceny us\u0142ug. To z kolei \u2013 mimo kryzysu \u2013 zach\u0119ci wiele os\u00f3b do inwestowania i korzystania z transportu. Na pewno dobr\u0105 wiadomo\u015bci\u0105 jest te\u017c fakt, \u017ce powoli stabilizuje si\u0119 sytuacja geopolityczna. Pa\u0144stwa raczej nie chc\u0105 wchodzi\u0107 w wielkie i otwarte konflikty, \u017ceby nie pogarsza\u0107 swojej sytuacji gospodarczej. To r\u00f3wnie\u017c mo\u017ce by\u0107 szansa dla ca\u0142ego sektora.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Konsekwencje epidemii koronawirusa na ka\u017cd\u0105 ga\u0142\u0105\u017a gospodarki s\u0105 na razie niepoliczalne. Ci\u0119\u017cko zak\u0142ada\u0107 co przyniesie przysz\u0142o\u015b\u0107, a kreowanie optymistycznych czy pesymistycznych wariant\u00f3w jest jak wr\u00f3\u017cenie z fus\u00f3w. Spr\u00f3bujmy jednak okre\u015bli\u0107, jak na polski transport wp\u0142ynie tarcza antykryzysowa i zawirowania na \u015bwiatowych rynkach.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":24558,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_bbp_topic_count":0,"_bbp_reply_count":0,"_bbp_total_topic_count":0,"_bbp_total_reply_count":0,"_bbp_voice_count":0,"_bbp_anonymous_reply_count":0,"_bbp_topic_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_reply_count_hidden":0,"_bbp_forum_subforum_count":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[149],"tags":[41,82,6403],"class_list":["post-24550","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-z-kraju","tag-chiny","tag-handel","tag-tarcza-antykryzysowa"],"_wp_page_template":null,"_publicize_pending":null,"publicize_twitter_user":null,"_wpas_done_4647298":null,"_publicize_done_external":null,"_wpas_skip_4647132":null,"_wpas_skip_4647298":null,"_wp_attached_file":null,"_wp_attachment_metadata":null,"publicize_facebook_url":null,"publicize_twitter_url":null,"_wpas_mess":null,"_wpas_done_4647132":null,"_menu_item_type":null,"_menu_item_menu_item_parent":null,"_menu_item_object_id":null,"_menu_item_object":null,"_menu_item_target":null,"_menu_item_classes":null,"_menu_item_xfn":null,"_menu_item_url":null,"_ht_post_sidebar":null,"_ht_post_view_single":null,"_ht_pf_gallery_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_gallery_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_image_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_image_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_video_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_video_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_audio_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_audio_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_quote_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_quote_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_link_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_link_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_status_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_status_post_excerpt":null,"_ht_pf_chat_post_title":null,"_ht_pf_chat_post_excerpt":null,"_thumbnail_id":"24558","_ht_page_sidebar":null,"_yoast_wpseo_metadesc":"Tarcza antykryzysowa, ceny ropy i inne zmienne mog\u0105 wp\u0142yn\u0105\u0107 na rynek transportu. 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